When do video games go on sale?

Game prices are not random. With one notable exception, every third-party game follows the same predictable curve: it launches high, takes its first real discount a few months in, and then steps lower at each seasonal sale until it settles at a long-term floor. Once you can see that curve, the question "should I buy now or wait?" has an actual answer.

This is the single most valuable habit in budget gaming, and it is why buying the hot new release at launch is the most expensive way to play. Wait one or two cycles and the same money buys the same game for a fraction of the price — or a stone-cold classic instead.

The discount curve, step by step

1. Launch (month 0): full price.New games open at $40–$70. Big titles almost never discount in their first weeks — demand is highest and the publisher has no reason to cut. Pre-orders and launch-week buying pay the maximum.
2. First discount (around month 3): the first real cut.The first meaningful markdown — often 20–33% — typically arrives about three months after launch, frequently timed to the next seasonal sale. This is the earliest most games are worth buying if you were not going to play them day one.
3. Deepening (months 6–12): each seasonal sale goes lower.At each following event — Summer, Autumn/Black Friday, Winter — the same game tends to reach a new low. A game bought in its second or third sale is usually half price or better.
4. The floor (year 1–2+): the long-term low.Eventually the price settles at a floor it keeps returning to during sales — often 60–80% off launch. Former $70 blockbusters routinely live here at $15–$20. This is where value peaks.
5. Bundles and collections: the final drop.Older games get folded into "complete" or "game of the year" editions and franchise bundles, so you eventually get the base game plus all its DLC for less than the base game once cost.

What moves a game down the curve faster

• Seasonal sales. The deepest cuts cluster around the big events. On PC that means the Steam sale schedule; on console, the platform's seasonal and Black Friday sales.
• A sequel or re-release. When the next game in a series is announced or launches, the previous entry drops hard to hoover up new fans.
• Time, plainly. Games do not get worse as they age; they just get cheaper. A three-year-old masterpiece is the same masterpiece at a third of the price.
• Physical competition.On console, retailers competing on boxed copies often push the price below the platform's digital store — see where to buy cheap games.

The big exception: Nintendo first-party

One category ignores the curve almost entirely: Nintendo's own published games. Mario, Zelda, Splatoon, Animal Crossing, Smash and Pokemon can sit at or near launch price for years. Nintendo prices for longevity and rarely blinks. So the "wait three months" rule does not apply to them — if you want a mainline Nintendo game, it will likely cost about the same next year as it does today.

Everything else — third-party games on Switch, and virtually all PlayStation, Xbox and PC games including their own first-party titles — follows the normal curve. We cover the Nintendo specifics in Nintendo eShop sale dates.

So should you buy now or wait?

A simple decision rule covers almost every case:

• Must play it this week?Buy it, and accept you are paying the launch premium. That is a fine choice — just make it on purpose.
• Can wait, and it is newer than a year?Wishlist it and buy at the next seasonal sale. You will likely save 30–60%.
• Older than a year or two? It is probably near its floor already. Check the historical low; if the current price matches it, there is little to gain by waiting.
• It is a Nintendo first-party game? Waiting rarely helps. Buy when you want it, or go physical to save a little and keep resale value.